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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still